Eastern Europe

From 04/09 to 04/09

Analysis

The largest area under tension remains this week as well as the Ukrainian Donbas area. Although the tensions between the inhabitants of this area have faded, we believe that in the coming weeks the tension between the two opposing factions between pro Russians and pro EU will increase. At present, few American and European contractors remained in the Dombas area on the Ukrainian side. The presence of intelligence personnel from the UK and the USA remains high.

Poland’s extreme right-wing political forces have raised the level of attention this week and have been very critical of the alliance with the European Union by openly declaring their opposition to immigration policies.

The major tensions about anarchist extremism, this week are derived from the Belarus region. A series of meetings between German and Belarusian anarchists in the city of Minsk are scheduled for next week.

Risk Data

25%

Terrorism

The area of Eastern Europe of European relevance, this week did not detect any alarm. Exception is the Russian area of St. Petersburg, in which the presence of Caucasian extremists were detected, but at the moment no tangible signal is considered an imminent attack.

35%

Crime

The greatest dangers for crime derive, even this week, from the major cities of Romania, Poland, Ukraine and Russia. The sale of amphetamines in and out of nightclubs as well as police bribery are the biggest risks to free movement. Solitary nocturnal excursions in the central areas of Sofia, Konstanz, Minsk and Warsaw are not recommended

35%

Political

This week, no area in Eastern Europe has detected particular political tensions. However, there remains an alert in the area of Hungary on the border between Serbia and Romania, where the presence of border police increases to prevent the entry of illegal immigrants.

Security Alert

The greatest dangers for the geographic area treated, remain linked to petty crime and organized crime. They are active in the area of Romania that borders the Danube, several criminal groups that organize abductions of girls who are sold as slaves and destined for France, Italy and the United Kingdom.

On the cybercrime side, est europe remains the area of greatest interest for crime. Romania and Russia are the major exponents for the presence of hackers also organized in action groups. Monitoring the deep web, this week did not detect new ransomware submissions. The tension remains high due to the presence on the web of fraud CEO or BEC (Business email compromises (BEC) as well as the persistence of DDoS attack attempts have been made using Zbot malware.

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