Western Europe

From 04/09 to 04/15

Analysis

In Italy, after more than a month from the political elections, the 5-star movement and the Lega party do not find a viable agreement. This stalemate is caused by Berlusconi who is balance within the center right. The leader of the Lega Salvini and the leader of the 5-star Di Maio movement, would have the votes in Parliament, but Salvini should definitely leave Berlusconi.

The President of the Republic Mattarella, if he were definitively convinced that there are no other possible solutions, could entrust an exploratory assignment to the President of the Senate or to the President of the Chamber.

The French political situation appears to be in a phase of strong tension due to the strikes called by the railway union again this week. In addition, President Macron will have to unequivocally outline the foreign policy line towards Syria and Assad’s ally, Putin. In this week the alignments between Italy, Germany and Japan have emerged that will not intervene in the event of more again armed attack on Syria.

Risk Data

75%

Terrorism

The Islamic terrorism alert remains high throughout the central European area. In particular, France, Spain, Italy and Germany have raised the alert level due to a series of arrests in all these states. Italy and France, this week have also suffered acts of  Anarch terrorism. In particular, the Italian Customs, has arrested 13 people including Tunisians and Moroccans who would transport, by sea, jihadists from Tunisia to Sicily. Illegal landings took place on board rafts, equipped with powerful outboard engines.

50%

Crime

Italy, Spain, France and Portugal, also during this week have recorded a series of arrests of criminals in major cities. Naples is undoubtedly the most dangerous city, in particular, even the historic center could be a place of robbery by young people who ride motorcycles. Beware of the ramblas in Barcelona and the area in the high barrio of Lisbon due to gypsies thieves of wallets.

15%

Political

None of the states of Central Europe shows political failings. The only exception could be Italy due to the fact that a stable government has not yet been established. It is feared that if the parties do not agree, new elections could be proclaimed. Even President Macron could have some problems, and lose consensus, caused by the strikes of the railway workers.

Security Alert

The France foreign policy line towards Syria can make growing the alert for terrorist threat. Also the last arrest in Italy show that jihadist pressure towards the Central Europe was growing in the week. The absence of a institutional government in Italy it could further complicate the tensions between France and Syria due to the lack of a mediating country.

Problems related to gang crime, could also occur in the coming periods that come to the summer, in the sea areas and in particular in the Italian cities of Rome, Naples, Palermo and Catania due to thefts and robberies to tourists. The solitary walks in the vicinity of the port are highly discouraged in these cities.

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