Eastern Europe

From 04/15 to 04/30

Analysis

The recent wave of right-wing nationalism is creating a series of retaliations by the central government of the EU. After the statements of these last weeks of Prime Minister Polacco and President Hungary, it is clear that the Eastern European bloc is being compacted.

The economic planning of the EU budget, probably moves in favor of nations like Gracia and Spagnia. This attitude will allow nationalist groups to find the right motivations to increase popular consensus. German Guenther Oettinger, in charge of the EU’s budget affairs, has not confirmed that this is how the budget will be rearranged.

It is clear, therefore, that if the EU budget commission were to favor the states of Greece and Spain, the consensus gap would widen to the right wing, favoring Putin’s policies. The next few weeks will be decisive to establish the key points of the next EU financial maneuver and to establish, as a consequence, which political path will be undertaken by Poland and Hungary.

Risk Data

30%

Terrorism

The outlook remains unchanged compared to the previous period. The police forces are active throughout the area of Eastern Europe to look for evidence on the involvement of a group of Slovenians. in the last days, a Slovak was arrested in northern Italy while he was carrying weapons and explosives in his car and was headed to Spain. It is feared that this is a covered cell of Al-Quaeda that is ready to commit a powerful attack in Spain.

35%

Crime

The outlook remains unchanged compared to the previous period. No news of particular criminal importance.

35%

Political

With the wave of elections in Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovenia, Central and Eastern Europe is experiencing an important period of political change. The political risk index, however, illustrates a different image throughout the region.
In general, the risk is lower in the EEC than in the past but some states such as Hungary and Poland are mentioned more often, against the EU and international institutions. In the Czech Republic, the leader Andrej Babis seems to follow a path similar to that of the governing parties in Hungary and Poland. The Czech Republic is facing political unrest after the January vote this year. The prime minister is trying to form a new coalition government, with the support of the parliament. Both Slovakia and Slovenia recently resigned from their prime ministers.

Security Alert

In general, the security risk remains stable in all risk areas. The only problems are related to petty crime and petty theft. The greatest risk comes from the presence of criminals dedicated to kidnapping for the purpose of extortion. Only the Czech Republic shows tensions for popular revolts and there is a fear of unrest for the first days of may.

Safety and Security Academy

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