Forecasting terrorist attacks in December

The situation for terrorism in December:

Continental Europe (France, Holland, Germany, England, Belgium, the Baltic countries, Russia and the Nordic countries)

The Christmas holidays will be the biggest event of the year for the safety of the cities.

Almost all the jihadist websites are inciting to commit attacks and from the jihad point of view the major cities at risk remain Helsinki, Oslo, Paris, London, Brussels, Berlin, Amsterdam, Copenhagen, St. Peterburg, Mosca, in particular the airports and the railway stations, the shopping centers and shopping streets, shopping centers, major events and shows.

Attacks in minor cities are not excluded.

Mediterranean basin and West Europe;

Almost all the major Spanish cities remain the main targets of Islamic jihad, as have been the cities of northern Morocco and Algeria for a few months now.

In Tunisia the tension remains high in the areas of the south of the country and on the border with Libya and Algeria while some areas of the city of Tunis are to be taken off limit (Ariana, Menza 7 / 8 ).

Italy, France, Greece and Spain will be affected by the resurgence of the FAI insurrectionary anarchy. In particular, attacks in Greece and Italy are feared.

The days at greatest risk will be from December 22nd to January 6th.

Jihadi Terrorism in Southern Thailand

Thailand’s Malay-Muslim society overwhelmingly rejects transnational jihadism, but the vulnerablility south of the country is a potential seedbed for advocates of violence.

Bangkok and the main militant separatist organisation can head off any jihadist expansion in South East Asia by energising peace talks and agreeing on a more decentralised political system.

The common front of Terrorism

The fronts of the Jihadist war have long been clearly defined and clear.

Al Qaeda on one side with organized attacks and carefully studied,  I.S. with seemingly random attac committed by people who are not technically prepared on the other side.

Direct attacks (Twin Towers, Zaventem Airport) tend to involve heavily the main ​​the terrorist groups. The operational designers have at their disposal a wider range of resources as well as professional training and aspirations that naturally guide their planning to high profile attacks involving highly specialized staff.

Large cities tend to provide a multiplicity of goals for this kind of operations.

In recent years, however, the material performers of the attacks act according to a different pattern.

Attackers and designers are often made by theirself, with limited resources and limited information on the vertices of terrorist organizations, and their first attack is often also the last.

In addition, they tend to have a much more localized view on targeting, instead of considering a multiplicity of goals and selecting those that would maximize the effect, they base decisions on those that are most familiar within.

Objectives that a structurated Terrorist Group could never have considered worthy of an attack, suddenly become interested.
This approach is immediately supported by terrorist group through messages which claim the responsability for the attacks.
The number of IS terrorist attacks outside the war zones ranged from one every 21 days until 2014, to an attack every 10 days in 2015 and every 8 days starting on December 2016.

As a result, the threat of serious attacks in the city has increased, but only 43% of them can be charged to the IS and the remaining can be charged to other forms of terrorism such as anarchy and nationalism.

It is impossible to predict exactly where terrorists will hit in the future, there is no way to know where the future attacks will be.

For the first time in the history of jihadist terrorism, attacks are carried out without geographical limitations.


Photo: Kris

Philippines Report

Philippines Report - Terrorism

Significant changes noticed. High Terrorism Risk Level reported by the Philippines Report.

The persistence of Martial Law and the almost absence of controversy within the institutions is a guarantee of lasting for the existing military regime.

However, on the terrorist front, after the bombings on Marawi, continues the evacuation of the inhabitants.

Turkey has offered to welcome evacuated Muslims. The army has increased the number of soldiers on the island and continue researching militants into Islamic groups.

The terrorist threat remains high but after the bombings carried out by the Filipino army with the help of American aviation in Mindanao on the city of Marawi, the Abu Sayaf Group will need to reorganize also following the death of Abu Sayyaf leader Isnilon Hapilon and leaders of the Maute Group led by the Maute brothers.

Although martial law is currently in existence, the two terrorist groups are trying to reorganize themselves.

There is an escalation of attacks throughout the Asian area and in particular in the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Borneo, Sri Lanka and India.

ISIS in this last period, has suffered considerable blows in Syria and the Philippines. Both states have been their stronghold in recent years.

The defeats suffered led to the flight of many ISIS leaders who were present in Syria and the Philippines. The consequence of the defeat is that many of the ISIS militants have already moved to Libya and Somali, but others have remained in Syria and the Philippines.

On the criminal front, the area most affected by the criminal phenomenon remains Manila.


Photo:  Reuters/Erik De Castro